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A Norges Bank survey indicates that Norwegian companies have experienced a slight decline in capacity utilisation over the past three months and are anticipating slower growth in early 2026. Low housing construction, weak government demand, international trade tensions, and the completion of oil projects are expected to affect expansion. Employment plans have been modestly revised down, while wage growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were adjusted to 4.4% and 4.1%, respectively. Recent data also showed core inflation easing more than expected, reflecting a stabilising economic environment.
Capacity utilisation among Norwegian companies has decreased slightly over the past three months, and business leaders are expecting a slower pace of growth during the first quarter of 2026, according to a recent survey by Norges Bank. The central bank noted that contacts expect lower housing construction, subdued demand from the local government sector, ongoing international trade tensions, and the completion of major oil-related projects to dampen business expansion. Advertisement
The survey, which serves as an important tool for guiding monetary policy, was published just ahead of the central bank's next interest rate decision scheduled for mid-December. While companies have modestly scaled back their employment plans, most still expect steady growth through the last quarter of 2025 and into early 2026.
Wage growth projections have also been adjusted. Survey participants reduced their forecast for 2025 to 4.4% from the 4.5% predicted three months ago, while slightly increasing the projection for 2026 to 4.1% from 4.0%. These adjustments reflect both cautious optimism and recognition of external pressures affecting businesses.
Recent data shows that core inflation eased more than expected in November, pointing to a moderating price trend that could support continued economic activity. Historically, Norway's economic performance has been closely tied to the oil sector and government investments, and the survey suggests that while expansion continues, growth may moderate as major projects finish and global uncertainties persist.
The survey underscores that Norwegian companies are navigating a period of adjustment, balancing ongoing opportunities with domestic and international challenges. Policymakers and businesses will closely monitor early 2026 developments to maintain stable growth and employment levels.
Source Reuters
5th Jun, 2025
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