China's housing market showed mixed trends in September, with new home prices rising slightly while resale prices continued to fall. Despite traditional buying months and multiple government support measures, the sector remains fragile. Defaults by developers have left a significant inventory of unsold and unfinished homes. Analysts suggest the market may not stabilize until 2026 or 2027, as weak incomes, unemployment concerns, and high secondary-market listings dampen demand. Reduced household wealth has limited spending, while declining business confidence further challenges the job market and economic recovery.
China's housing market showed uneven trends in September, with new home prices seeing a small increase while resale prices continued to fall, highlighting persistent challenges in the sector despite government support measures. According to a survey by China Index Academy, one of the country's leading property research firms, new home prices rose 0.09% month-on-month, down from a 0.2% increase in August. Resale prices declined 0.74%, similar to the previous month's 0.76% drop.
September and October are usually active months for home sales, as developers often launch projects to match anticipated demand. However, the sector has struggled to recover after several developers defaulted on loans in past years, leaving large inventories of unsold and unfinished homes. These defaults and stalled projects have weighed on buyer confidence and slowed market momentum.
Authorities have rolled out multiple support measures to revive the market. These include cuts in mortgage rates, easing of some lending rules, and the launch of urban redevelopment programmes aimed at stimulating housing demand. Despite these efforts, a sustained recovery has remained elusive, and analysts in a Reuters poll expect home prices to stabilize no earlier than the second half of 2026 or even 2027 pushing earlier projections back by about six months.
Economic factors continue to dampen demand. Weak income growth, rising unemployment pressures, and an oversupply of resale properties are keeping buyers cautious. Many households have seen their wealth shrink amid the prolonged property slump, leading to reduced spending. The slowdown has also affected business confidence, which in turn has added pressure on the job market and broader economic recovery.
Source Reuters
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