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Dubai's property investors were advised not to base their decisions only on forecasts of price corrections linked to new housing supply. Analysts such as Fitch and Moody's recently suggested a possible 15% decline in values by the end of this year or early next. However, fäm Properties' CEO Firas Al Msaddi highlighted that the market is far more complex, urging investors to track broader indicators like demand, sales activity, rent levels, and liquidity instead of focusing solely on scheduled deliveries.
Dubai real estate investors were warned this past week that relying purely on supply-based forecasts for property price corrections could be misleading. Recent reports by agencies including Fitch and Moody's, alongside other specialists, projected that property values could fall by as much as 15% by the close of this year or into early 2026. Advertisement
Responding to these outlooks, Firas Al Msaddi, Chief Executive Officer of f?m Properties, one of Dubai's largest estate agencies, remarked that such predictions often overlooked more influential market drivers. He explained that relying on the number of new units alone painted an incomplete picture, and that seven broader signals needed equal attention.
He cited resilient investor demand supported by attractive yields, strong migration and population growth, as well as record-high rents encouraging end-user purchases, as factors keeping the market steady despite rising supply. He noted that forecasts predicting a decline every few months frequently ignored these fundamentals. Al Msaddi emphasised that prices did not shift in isolation and urged investors to examine demand, liquidity, rental dynamics, and supply in conjunction.
Through its AI-driven platform DXBinteract, fäm Properties tracks seven market indicators daily to provide investors with early signs of potential shifts before they appear in official statistics. These include bid weakness, which reveals growing negotiations and discounts; days on market, which reflects buyer hesitation; and sales volume trends, where sustained declines signal weakening demand. Other measures are inventory and absorption rates, which show if supply is outpacing demand, and yield compression, which occurs when capital growth outpaces rental returns.
Additionally, rent-to-price divergence is analysed to assess whether the market is speculative or undervalued, while mortgage costs and liquidity levels indicate real purchasing power among end-users. Al Msaddi commented that Dubai's property market, like any other, moved in cycles but added that investors could shield themselves from surprises by closely monitoring these key signals instead of depending only on supply data.
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