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A new study by the United Nations Development Programme, conducted in collaboration with the University of Denver's Pardee Institute and Octopus Energy, finds that linking renewable energy targets with inclusive development policies could lift 193 million people out of extreme poverty by 2060. The most ambitious scenario modeled in the report shows potential for massive social gains like universal electricity access and reduction in malnutrition alongside USD 20.4 trillion in economic savings. The findings come as fossil fuels continue to dominate energy consumption, despite record investments in clean energy.
A global study released by the UNDP, in partnership with the University of Denver's Pardee Institute and UK-based Octopus Energy, has found that synchronizing renewable energy goals with inclusive social policies could transform the lives of millions while also generating substantial financial gains. Advertisement
The study presented three distinct global energy scenarios leading up to 2060. The first referred to as the business-as-usual scenario shows a world still largely reliant on fossil fuels. In this projection, more than half of the primary energy supply will continue to come from fossil sources by 2060, pushing global temperatures up by 2.6°C and worsening existing inequalities related to poverty, malnutrition, and access to basic services.
The second pathway models accelerated deployment of renewable energy in alignment with the first Global Stocktake, which calls for tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency. In this outcome, fossil fuels would account for only 12 per cent of the energy mix by 2060, helping keep global temperature rise below 2°C.
However, the most impactful projection emerges from the third and most ambitious scenario. Here, renewable energy growth is coupled with parallel investments in health, education, water, food systems, and clean cooking initiatives. This vision enables universal electricity access, lifts 193 million people out of extreme poverty, prevents malnutrition in 142 million individuals, and ensures clean water and sanitation for 550 million more.
Cassie Flynn, UNDP's Global Director of Climate Change, stated that the study demonstrates the viability of a clean energy future provided that climate strategies are embedded with inclusive development goals. Flynn emphasized the need for renewable energy ambition to be integrated with broader socio-economic planning.
From a financial standpoint, the third scenario projects USD 8.9 trillion in savings through improved energy efficiency and another USD 11.5 trillion from declining renewable technology costs. Global GDP would see a boost of 21 per cent, with per capita income rising by USD 6,000 by 2060.
Greg Jackson, the founder of Octopus Energy, pointed out that clean energy doesn't just mean decarbonization it offers real growth opportunities by delivering electricity access to hundreds of millions and enhancing lives across developing economies.
Despite these promising forecasts, the current state of global energy reflects a stark contrast. Renewable power capacity is expected to reach 4,448 GW by 2025, forming over 90 per cent of new power additions. Clean energy investments are on track to touch a record high of USD 2.2 trillion. However, fossil fuels still hold sway, contributing to more than 70 per cent of the world's energy supply. In 2024 alone, they were responsible for more than half the 2.2 per cent rise in global energy demand. Alarmingly, the pace of improvement in energy efficiency has halved compared to previous decades.
Jonathan Moyer, Director of the Pardee Institute, stated that this research proves it's possible to strike a balance between global development goals and environmental stewardship. But he also noted that managing trade-offs will be essential. He urged global leaders to act swiftly and decisively on the roadmap presented.
Source PTI
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